Saturday, December 21, 2013

5 Stocks Under $10 in Breakout Territory

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

>>5 Breakout Trades Under $10

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

Cenveo

Cenveo (CVO) provides an array of print and related solutions in the areas of envelops, custom labels, specialty packaging and business documents, among others. This stock closed up 4.6% to $3.16 a share in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $2.87-$3.16

52-Week Range: $1.85-$3.22

Thursday's Volume: 3.70 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 634,385

From a technical perspective, CVO spiked sharply higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $2.95 with heavy upside volume. This stock has been uptrending for the last month and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $2.69 to its recent high of $3.22. During that uptrend, shares of CVO have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of CVO within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if CVO manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $3.20 to its 52-week high at $3.22 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CVO as long as it's trending above Thursday's low of $2.87 or above more support at $2.80 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 634,385 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CVO will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $3.50 to $4.

Arca Biopharma

Arca Biopharma (ABIO) is a biopharmaceutical company developing genetically targeted therapies for cardiovascular diseases. This stock closed up 14.2% to $1.60 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.40-$1.60

52-Week Range: $1.13-$5.94

Thursday's Volume: 3.27 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 669,132

From a technical perspective, ABIO exploded higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $1.47 with monster upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of ABIO within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if ABIO manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.63 to $1.70, and then once it takes out more resistance at $1.76 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ABIO as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $1.47 or above more support at $1.30 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 669,132 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then ABIO will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone from May that started near $2.80 a share.

Accretive Health

Accretive Health (AH) is a provider of services to the health care providers. This stock closed up 1.6% to $8.69 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $8.54-$8.81

52-Week Range: $8.03-$13.54

Thursday's Volume: 809,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 335,380

From a technical perspective, shares of AH spiked modestly higher here with above-average volume. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last six months, with shares sliding lower from over $11 to its recent low of $8.03. During that downtrend, shares of AH have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of AH have now started to rebound off that $8.03 low and it's quickly moving within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if AH manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at its 50-day moving average of $8.93 to more resistance at $9.06 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AH as long as it's trending above that recent low of $8.03 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 335,380 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then AH will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $10.06 to $10.20, or even $11.

ENGlobal

ENGlobal (ENG) is a provider of engineering and other professional project services related to design, fabrication, procurement, maintenance, environmental and other governmental compliance and construction management. This stock closed up 5.3% to $1.37 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $1.32-$1.38

52-Week Range: $0.30-$1.54

Thursday's Volume: 50,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 50,134

From a technical perspective, ENG ripped higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $1.35 with decent upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of ENG within range of triggering another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if ENG manages to take out Thursday's high of $1.38 to its 52-week high at $1.54 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ENG as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $1.20 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 50,134 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ENG will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.76 to $2, or even $2.20.

Two Harbors Investment

Two Harbors Investment (TWO) is a Maryland corporation formed to invest primarily in residential mortgage-backed securities. This stock closed up 1.8% to $9.64 in Thursday's trading session.

Thursday's Range: $9.49-$9.65

52-Week Range: $8.95-$13.05

Thursday's Volume: 5.50 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 4.96 million

From a technical perspective, TWO trended modestly higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $9.52 with above-average volume. This move is starting to push shares of TWO within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if TWO manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $9.89 to $9.94, and then once it takes out its 200-day at $10.29 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in TWO as long as it's trending above support at $9.15 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 4.96 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then TWO will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $11.50 to $12.

Hot High Tech Companies To Watch In Right Now

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


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Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Tennant Misses on the Top and Bottom Lines

Tennant (NYSE: TNC  ) reported earnings on April 22. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Tennant missed estimates on revenues and missed estimates on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue contracted. Non-GAAP earnings per share expanded. GAAP earnings per share dropped.

Margins dropped across the board.

Revenue details
Tennant tallied revenue of $168.1 million. The four analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ looked for sales of $174.7 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were the same as the prior-year quarter's.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.29. The four earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.36 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 for Q1 were 3.6% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.28 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.27 for Q1 were 3.6% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.28 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 43.1%, 30 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 4.1%, 70 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 3.0%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $200.6 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.75.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $760.4 million. The average EPS estimate is $2.39.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 139 members out of 148 rating the stock outperform, and nine members rating it underperform. Among 41 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 40 give Tennant a green thumbs-up, and one give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Tennant is outperform, with an average price target of $51.67.

Looking for alternatives to Tennant? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

Add Tennant to My Watchlist.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

The Five Best Bond Funds for 2014

Bond prices rose and yields fell almost without interruption for 30 years before 2013. With the benchmark ten-year Treasury bond paying just 2.9%, yields are still low by historical standards. Since 1962, the ten-year Treasury has yielded 6.3%, on average. So even a small improvement in the global economy should push yields higher in 2014, especially once the Federal Reserve starts paring back its aggressive bond-buying program in January.

See Also: Best Stock Funds for 2014

With bonds facing these headwinds, I think investors should keep interest-rate sensitivity relatively low in the fixed-income portion of their portfolios. That means avoiding long-term bond funds and even many high-quality intermediate-term funds. I'd rather take my risks in 2014 owning funds that invest in bonds with lower credit quality.

But keep in mind that if the economy were to slide into recession in 2014, which I view as unlikely, not only would your stock funds be hammered, your lower-quality bond funds would take hits, too. High-quality bonds, by contrast, usually perform well when the economy tanks.

Here are my five favorite funds for 2014, listed in order from lowest to highest risk.

FPA New Income (symbol FPNIX) won't make you rich, but neither will it send you to the poorhouse—even if rates shoot up. The fund's primary objective is to avoid losses over any 12-month period, and it has met that goal since FPA took over management of the fund in 1984. Year to date, New Income has returned 0.8%. (All returns and yields are as of December 17.)

New Income yields 3.2%, and the short-term nature of its holdings will minimize the damage if rates rise. The fund should lose about 2% if rates rise by one percentage point. I don't think you'll find another fund that takes as little risk and pays as generous a yield. Almost 80% of the fund is in bonds rated single-A and higher. The fund's average credit quality is triple-B, the lowest investment-grade rating. More than half the fund's assets are in U.S. government-backed securities. "We're belt-and-suspenders investors," says Tom Atteberry, who has co-managed the fund since 2004. The fund does have a chunk of its assets in lower-quality, non-government-backed commercial mortgages and asset-backed securities. Annual expenses are 0.58%.

Metropolitan West Unconstrained Bond (MWCRX) employs a proven strategy—with one major twist. The fund's three co-managers have also piloted the $25 billion Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX), an intermediate-term bond fund, since 1997. Total Return is currently invested in a stew of mortgage securities, corporate bonds, asset-backed securities and emerging-markets bonds. All but 15% of the fund's assets are rated investment grade. It returned an annualized 6.5% over the past ten years—an average of 1.9 percentage points more per year than Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index.

The main difference between Unconstrained and Total Return is that the former can short Treasury bonds—that is, bet on Treasuries to decline in price. Unconstrained's current short positions sharply cut the fund's exposure to rising interest rates. The fund would lose only 1.4% in price if yields were to rise one percentage point.

Aside from betting against Treasuries, Unconstrained's holdings are similar to Total Return's. But if the managers are right, Unconstrained will avoid the pain of rising rates. The fund yields 2.1% and charges 0.99% in annual fees.

So far, returns have been excellent. Since Unconstrained's inception in late 2011, the fund has returned an annualized 12.1%—an average of 10.5 percentage points per year more than the Barclays Aggregate index. Another plus: The fund is relatively undiscovered. Assets are a mere $624 million.

Loomis Sayles Bond (LSBRX) has been one of the friskier bond funds since Dan Fuss launched it in 1991. Over the past ten years, the fund returned an annualized 7.8%—an average of 3.2 percentage points per year better than the Barclays Aggregate index. However, that stellar long-term record includes a 22.1% drop in 2008, when Barclays Aggregate gained 5.2%.

Fuss—the fund's lead manager—and two co-managers believe the yield on ten-year Treasuries will rise to 4.5% to 5% in the next three to five years. "Long-term, high-quality bonds are one of the riskiest investments you can make," says co-manager Elaine Stokes. That's because the better a bond's quality, the lower its yield and the more sensitive it is to changes in interest rates.

Accordingly, the Loomis managers are avoiding high-quality bonds. Indeed, the fund has an average credit quality of just triple-B (firmly in junk bond territory). Moreover, the fund has 10% of its assets in convertible securities, which can behave like stocks. About one-third of its assets are in short-term bonds denominated in foreign currencies, mainly in Canada, New Zealand and Norway. The fund, which charges 0.92% per year, yields 3.2%.

TCW Emerging Markets Income N (TGINX) isn't for the faint of heart. Of course, the same could be said for just about all emerging-markets bond funds, which showed in 2013 that they are suitable for only a small part of a typical investor's fixed-income allocation. The group got hammered because of fears of higher interest rates in the U.S. A stronger dollar also hurt investments denominated in foreign currencies.

But in many emerging markets the worst may be over. Countries that are growing at a rapid clip and have low debt levels as a percentage of gross domestic product may well see their currencies and their bonds recover. Unlike most of its peers, which invest almost entirely in dollar-denominated bonds or entirely in bonds issued in currencies of emerging markets, the TCW fund invests in both. It also owns both government bonds and corporates. I think that flexibility will pay off over time. Indeed, over the past five years, the fund returned an annualized 16.1%, putting it in the top 4% of emerging-markets bond funds. TCW, which lost 5.2% in 2013, yields a generous 6.5%. Annual expenses are 1.1%.

Vanguard Convertible Securities (VCVSX) isn't, strictly speaking, a bond fund. It invests in convertible bonds—hybrids that are part stock and part bond. Like conventional bonds, convertibles pay some interest, though they yield less than ordinary bonds. But as their name implies, convertibles can be converted into stock at a preset price at any time.

When a convertible trades at or near a price at which conversion makes economic sense, it tends to closely track the issuer's stock. Conversely, when a convertible is far below its conversion price, it trades almost entirely as a bond would, independent of movements in the stock's price. Larry Keele, who is the Vanguard fund's lead manager, and his two co-managers generally like convertibles that trade between those two extremes.

Their fund has been a winner. Over the past ten years, it returned an annualized 7.9%—beating Standard & Poor's 500-stock index by an average of 0.7 percentage point per year. Yet it has been 20% less volatile than the S&P index.

Convertibles are risky. Almost all of them have junk ratings; this fund's average credit rating is double-B. Although Keele, who has been on the fund since 1996, and his co-managers have a terrific record of avoiding defaults, Vanguard Convertible still lost 29.8% in 2008. The S&P 500 plunged 37% that year.

You can only buy the fund directly from Vanguard. But, in my view, it's by far the best fund in its class. Expenses are just 0.52% annually, and the fund yields 2.2%.

How did my 2013 picks do? On average, the funds have returned negative 2.1% so far this year, compared with a loss of 1.6% for the Barclays Aggregate index. Pulling the average down was Pimco Emerging Local Bond D (PLBDX), which tumbled 10.2%. All of my other picks beat the index.

Steven T. Goldberg is an investment adviser in the Washington, D.C., area.



Wednesday, December 18, 2013

5 Cash-Rich Stocks That Could Pay Triple the Gains in 2014

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- More than ever before, companies are stashing their cash. The S&P 500 alone is up to more than $1 trillion in corporate coffers, the result of record-high profits and a low-interest-rate environment that's kept investment options low.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Don't know what to do with a trillion dollars? Put it under the mattress.

On an absolute basis, companies have never held such high levels of cash in their treasuries. And as a percentage of assets, cash has reached a level that's been unheard of since the 1970s. Around 25% of the S&P's current price is covered by cash in the bank.

But if you think that excessive cash holdings are a drag on performance right now, think again.

Over the last decade, the top tier of cash-rich stocks worldwide generated total returns of 297%. That's triple what the S&P 500 earned over the same period. Yes, cash is still king this year.

>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out

Part of that stellar outperformance has to do with what cash enables companies to do. Capital gains are great, but historically speaking, the majority of portfolio growth comes from other sources. Dividends, share buybacks, and debt repurchases all inject value directly into your shares, and on a year-to-year basis, they also account for around 50% of annual stock performance. Only companies with cash that have the wherewithal to boost those payouts on command.

In short, cash provides options. Firms with cash can opt to increase shareholder value by paying a dividend or initiating a share buyback. Plus, they have the ability to take advantage of pricey M&A opportunities and internal investments.

>>5 Rocket Stocks Worth Buying This Week

So today, we're taking a look at five firms that fit the tight set of quantitative criteria that beat the S&P by a factor of 3.

Google

Search engine giant Google (GOOG) is the perfect example of a cash-rich company that didn't sacrifice capital gains for its cash cushion: shares of the $357 billion internet giant have rallied more than 50% since the calendar flipped over to January. Google's net cash and investment balance currently sits at $53 billion, enough to pay for around 15% of the firm's outstanding shares today.

>>The Truth About Amazon Drones

Despite products such as Chrome, Android and YouTube, Google is best-known for being the biggest internet search engine, and that's still the firm's bread and butter. Today, around 80% of sales (and an even bigger chunk of profits) come from search ads. But Google's investments in finding "the next big thing" are more than just a hobby; they're keeping consumers within the Google ecosystem, creating more ways to monetize eyeballs on content.

Google's huge cash position is interesting because the firm is one of the few cash-rich stocks that's using its money for interesting acquisitions. "Interesting" is the operative word here. Transformative acquisitions are too often destroyers of shareholder value, so Google's tuck-in buys mean that shareholders aren't getting left holding the bag.

Recent M&A moves such as robotics firm Boston Dynamics aren't going to change Google's core business overnight, but they're truly innovative firms that the Mountain View, Calif.-based company is likely to do something amazing with. Most importantly, Google can afford to experiment with new businesses as long as ad sales keep growing along the way.

Analog Devices

Semiconductor stock Analog Devices (ADI) has had a less inspiring run in 2013; the chipmaker is only up around 16% year-to-date. That's great performance during a normal year, but it's pretty weak when the S&P 500 is 25% higher during the same period.

>>3 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars

Still, with semis coming off of a cyclical low, and with a smattering of chip names like ADI holding onto serious cash positions, it may be time to take a closer look. At last count, Analog Devices carried $3.81 billion in cash on its balance sheet, good for about 25% of the firm's current market cap.

Analog Devices is the leader in the market for chips that translate between analog and digital signals, which gives them a role in everything from cell phones to cars. In total, ADI serves more than 60,000 customers worldwide, a broad customer base that exempts the firm from worrying about the fortunes or decisions of a single major customer. Since ADI's chips are just a necessary afterthought in most consumer devices, competition is relatively low -- OEMs would rather just buy them than engineer and build them. The advantages in the market come from ingenious design and from scale, and ADI has both.

New markets present big opportunities for ADI. As more and more products add electronic sensors to them, ADI is finding its way into new niches. Tailwinds in the wireless communications industry should add some extra fuel to an existing one as well. With a 2.8% dividend yield at current levels, ADI is paying cash out to shareholders slowly but surely.

Altera

Altera (ALTR) is another specialty chipmaker that's flush with cash right now. Altera is the second-largest designer of programmable logic devices, a subset of chips that can have their circuitry reprogrammed by the manufacturer's clients. While the chips are different from ADI's, the buyers aren't: Altera's customers include original equipment manufacturers of everything from communications devices to automobile components.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Since PLDs can be reprogrammed to carry out individualized tasks, they've historically been a costlier way to add features to a device. But as costs come down and the need for fast movement at electronics makers increases, Altera is getting customers in industries it didn't before. Since newer and higher-end PLDs are particularly suited to lower production runs (their unit cost is cheaper than the huge fixed costs of purpose-built chips), the firm's historic customer base is relatively cost immune -- the chips make up a tiny portion of overall cost of goods sold.

One reason for Altera's stellar balance sheet is the fact that it doesn't manufacture the chips itself. Instead, it has penned a production deal with Intel (INTC) that gives Altera an edge over competitors who don't have access to the most advanced chip foundries in the world. At last count, ALTR's balance sheet cash position weighed in at $2.46 billion.

News Corp.

In the past, News Corp. (NWSA) has been the poster child for value-destroying acquisitions. The firm paid $580 million for Myspace in 2005, only to sell it for $35 million in 2011. Enough said. But after spinning off its entertainment unit into 21st Century Fox (FOX), the "new" News Corp. is hoping to fix its former ills with ample cash on hand. The remaining company owns Wall Street Journal parent Dow Jones (it paid too much for that too), as well as a bigger business in U.K. and Australian newspapers.

>>5 Big Trades for Year-End Gains

After unloading its most well known assets, NWSA actually still owns a very attractive collection of companies. Exposure to partially-owned TV carrier Foxtel and online real estate classified provider REA Group in Australia provide nice complements to the core newspaper businesses. Education investment Amplify has some impressive growth room ahead of it, and it's in a space that's heating up very quickly in the private equity world.

News Corp. has taken a lot from its acquisition mistakes – that makes Chairman Rupert Murdoch a lot less likely to repeat them. And anyway, let's not forget that Murdoch and company are no strangers to successful M&A. Right now, NWSA holds $2.7 billion in cash and no debt -- enough to buy back more than a quarter of the firm's outstanding shares at current prices. Expect management to use it well.

Garmin

GPS giant Garmin (GRMN) takes a lot of flack from investors. After finding huge success in the personal navigation market, Garmin suddenly became an unwelcome name in investors portfolios on fears that GPS devices were becoming too commoditized. Sure enough, we've got GPS chips in everything from our phones and cameras to dog collars today – but none of that has turned off Garmin's cash-making machine.

While standalone car GPS units have become a low-margin product, Garmin has managed to add value to its technology by finding creative new ways to put GPS to work -- products such as the Garmin Approach golf watch have been smash hits and big margin contributors. Garmin's positioning in niche markets, like aviation and marine, is key to its strategy. It means that Garmin is able to pour R&D into big-ticket equipment and then transition the tech to the more margin-sensitive consumer market. The result is net profit margins that consistently reach above the 20% mark.

The fitness segment (products for runners, cyclists, and golfers) has been a big growth driver for Garmin, one where it's stood head and shoulders above rivals. And while investors questioned Garmin's fundamentals, the firm has kept packing its flawless balance sheet with cash. Right now, Garmin sports $2.8 billion in cash and investments, with zero debt. It's historically used some of that cash to fund a hefty dividend payout; at present, it amounts to a 3.87% yield.

To see these value-centric names in action, check out the Cash Rich Buys December 2013 portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


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>>5 Stocks Breaking Out on Big Volume



>>4 Hot Stocks to Trade (or Not)



>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Tesla Motors: 3 Things to Watch

Electric-car start-up Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) is on the verge of its first profit, a huge milestone for the audacious Silicon Valley start-up. But plenty of potential pitfalls remain. In this video, Fool contributor John Rosevear outlines three things that any Tesla investor should be watching carefully and that any potential Tesla investor should take into account before buying.

Is it too late to buy Tesla?
Near-faultless execution has led Tesla Motors to the brink of success, but the road ahead remains a hard one. Despite progress, a looming question remains: Will Tesla be able to fend off its big-name competitors? The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Tesla research available for smart investors like you. Thousands have already claimed their own premium ticker coverage, and you can gain instant access to your own by clicking here now.

5 Best Growth Stocks To Invest In 2014

Monday, December 16, 2013

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014

With shares of Lennar (NYSE:LEN) trading around $35, is the stock an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let�� analyze it with the relevant sections of our Cheat Sheet investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Lennar is a home builder and a provider of financial services as well as an investor and manager of funds that invest in real estate assets. The company�� homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes, as well as the purchase, development, and sale of residential land directly and through unconsolidated entities in which it has investments. Lennar operates in several segments: homebuilding east, homebuilding central, homebuilding west, homebuilding Southeast Florida, homebuilding Houston, financial services, and Rialto. The homebuilder industry has seen rising demand in the past couple of years that has driven profits much higher for these companies. Look for a homebuilder recovery to continue, and companies such as Lennar to increase profits.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: C.A. Bancorp Inc Com Npv (BKP.TO)

C.A. Bancorp Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in management buyouts, acquisitions, expansions, restructurings, refinancing, PIPE transactions of middle-market companies, and other alternative investment opportunities. It also participates in open market purchases, equity investments in private issuers, and privatization of public companies. The firm seeks to invest in industrials, real estate, infrastructure, and financial services. Within industrials, it seeks to invest in mature industrial companies with a focus on manufacturing, distribution, and service sectors. The firm�s investment in real estate includes industrial, commercial, healthcare, hospitality, and retail properties. Its infrastructure investment opportunities focus on power generation, transportation, and utilities. Within financial services the firm invests in Canadian and international financial services businesses, including asset managers and investment counselors. From time to time, the firm will seek to invest in Capital Pool Companies within the real estate, infrastructure, and other asset-rich areas. It seeks to invest in the private and public companies based in Canada. The firm�s public investments will focus on mid-market companies trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It typically invests between $0.5 million and $20 million in companies with enterprise values between $25 million and $200 million. The firm seeks to pursue investments that offer returns between 1.5 percent and three percent. It seeks a board seat in its portfolio companies. The firm exits its investments through sale to strategic buyers or financial investors, open market sales, normal course retirement of securities, refinancing, and public offerings. It was previously known as C.A. Bancorp Ltd. C.A. Bancorp Inc. is based in Ontario, Canada.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: Macatawa Bank Corporation(MCBC)

Macatawa Bank Corporation operates as the holding company for Macatawa Bank that provides various commercial and personal banking services. It offers various deposit products, which comprise checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, transaction accounts, savings and time certificates, non-interest bearing and interest bearing demand deposits, and money market accounts. The company?s loan portfolio comprises commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, construction and development loans, and multi-family and other non-residential real estate loans; residential mortgage loans; and consumer loans, including automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, installment loans, home improvement loans, deposit account loans, and other loans for household and personal purposes. It also provides cash management services, safe deposit boxes, travelers checks, money orders, and trust services; ATMs, Internet banking, telephone banking, and debit cards; and b rokerage services, including discount brokerage, personal financial planning, and consultation regarding mutual funds. In addition, the company offers personal trust services, such as financial planning, investment management services, trust and estate administration, and custodial services; and retirement plan services, including provision of various qualified retirement plans, such as profit sharing, 401(k)s, and pension plans. It operated a network of 26 branches and a lending and operation service facility in Kent, Ottawa, and northern Allegan counties of Michigan. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Holland, Michigan.

Top Low Price Companies To Buy Right Now: IFCI Ltd (IFCI)

IFCI Limited is engaged in financing business. Its products include short-term loans for different short term requirements including bridge loan, corporate Loan etc, medium-term loans for business expansion, technology up-gradation, long-term Loans for project finance for new industrial/infrastructure projects, lease financing, takeover of accounts from Banks, financing promoters contribution and purchase of standard Assets. The Company is a Nodal Agency for monitoring of Sugar Development Fund (SDF) loans for projects related to modernization and expansion, co-generation of power and production of alcohol/ethanol in the private sector. Its corporate advisory services include corporate advisory and infrastructure services, infrastructure advisory, monitoring agency for public issues, restructuring advisory services and bid process management.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: Transpac Industrial Hldgs Ltd (T55.SI)

Transpac Industrial Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides venture capital to companies with capital appreciation potential in Asia. It invests in the securities of growing private companies principally located in China/Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. The company is based in Singapore.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: LPL Investment Holdings Inc.(LPLA)

LPL Investment Holdings Inc. provides an integrated platform of brokerage and investment advisory services to independent financial advisors and financial advisors at financial institutions in the United States. The company?s brokerage offerings include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, general securities, alternative investments, retirement and 529 education savings plans, and fixed income; and insurance offerings comprise personalized advance case design, point-of-sale service, and product support for a range of life, disability, and long-term care products. Its fee-based advisory platforms and support solutions offer access to no-load/load-waived mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, stocks, bonds, conservative option strategies, unit investment trusts and no-load, institutional money managers, and multi-manager variable annuities through five platforms, as well as third-party equity research and asset-management services, and fee-based advisory and consulting services to retirement plans. The company?s cash sweep programs consist of money market sweep vehicles and an insured bank deposit sweep vehicles. Its services also include tools and services that enable advisors to maintain their practice; and trust, investment management oversight, and custodial services for estates and families, as well as technology and open architecture investment management solutions to trust departments of financial institutions. LPL Investment Holdings Inc. provides its services to approximately 12,800 independent financial advisors from a range of firms, including wirehouses, regional and insurance broker dealers, banks, and other independent firms; and registered investment advisors, and advisors at small and mid-sized financial institutions. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund Inc. (CUBA)

Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund Inc. is a closed-ended equity mutual fund launched by Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors, Inc. The fund is managed by Herzfeld/Cuba. It invests in the public equity markets of the Caribbean Basin Countries and the United States. The fund makes its investments in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund Inc. was formed on March 10, 1992 and is domiciled in the United States.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: CMS Bancorp Inc.(CMSB)

CMS Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for Community Mutual Savings Bank, which provides various banking services to individuals and small businesses primarily in Westchester County and the neighboring areas in New York State. It offers various deposit products, including savings deposits consisting of passbook and statement savings accounts; interest- and non-interest-bearing demand accounts; money market accounts; and time deposits. The company also provides loan products comprising residential, commercial real estate, and consumer loans, as well as multi-family, non-residential, construction, home equity, and second mortgage loans. In addition, it invests in various assets, including securities of various government-sponsored enterprises and mortgage-backed securities. As of September 30, 2010, CMS Bancorp operated 1 corporate office in White Plains and 5 retail banking offices in Westchester County, New York. The company is headquartered in White Plains, New York.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., incorporated in June 2008, is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is primarily focused on investing in, financing and managing residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans, which it collectively refers to as its target assets. The Company�� target assets consist of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) for which the United States Government agency, such as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) or a federally chartered corporation, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) or the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) guarantees payments of principal and interest on the securities. It refers to these securities as Agency RMBS. Its Agency RMBS investments include mortgage pass-through securities and may include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs). It also invests in RMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by the United States Government agency (non-Agency RMBS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and residential and commercial mortgage loans.

The Company finances its Agency RMBS, non-Agency RMBS and CMBS investments through short-term borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. The Company�� manager is Invesco Advisors Inc. The Company also finances its investments in certain non-Agency RMBS, CMBS and residential and commercial mortgage loans by contributing capital to the Invesco Mortgage Recovery Feeder Fund (Invesco IMRF Fund) that invests in public-private investment funds (PPIF) managed by the Company�� manager. The Company's manager is a wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Amanda Alix]

    Analysts at odds over mREITs
    Financial analysts have been busy noting the underperformance of mREITs lately, especially since the Fed dropped the QE3 taper bombshell almost two weeks ago -- immediately igniting fears of rising interest rates, which would decrease the value of the trusts' legacy assets, thus dinging book values. The pain hasn't been limited to the stocks mentioned above,� as CYS Investments (NYSE: CYS  ) , and even hybrids like Invesco (NYSE: IVR  ) , have been on a roller-coaster ride ever since.

  • [By Amanda Alix]

    All mREITs are taking it on the chin
    The agency crew, led by heavy hitters Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY  ) , American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC  ) , and Armour Residential (NYSE: ARR  ) , have all been close to hitting 52-week lows, but the blood-letting hasn't stopped there. Even hybrid mortgage REITs, which also buy some non-agency paper, have plunged, as well. Two Harbors (NYSE: TWO  ) , which enjoyed such a nice lift post-earnings about a month ago, recently sunk to new lows, and Invesco Mortgage Capital (NYSE: IVR  ) has also slipped, even after its CIO's recent show of faith, making a sizable insider purchase�of stock less than two weeks ago.

  • [By Monica Wolfe]

    Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)

    President and CEO of Invesco Richard King reported a rather notable insider buy on Aug. 5. The CEO purchased 6,500 shares of company stock at an average price of $15.41 per share. This purchase cost King a total of $100,165. Since this buy, the share price has increased a minor 0.13%. King now holds on to at least 56,545 shares of Invesco Mortgage stock.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    In contrast, non-agency mREITs often have to be more careful with their leverage since loan defaults actively impact their bottom-line profit, and rapidly rising interest rates, such as what we saw over the past few weeks, can trigger MBS and other security sales at a loss. In return for more risk, non-agency securities pay out higher yields. Take, for example, Invesco Mortgage Capital (NYSE: IVR  ) , a buyer of agency and non-agency RMBSes, which delivered what might seem like an uninspiring 1.64% net interest margin in the first quarter with a leverage ratio of 6.4. Now compare that to agency-only mREIT Annaly Capital, whose net interest margin fell 80 basis points from the year-ago period in the first quarter to just 0.91%, but with a higher leverage ratio of 6.6.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: Princeton National Bancorp Inc.(PNBC)

Princeton National Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for Citizens First National Bank, which provides commercial banking and trust services to individuals, businesses, and governmental bodies in Illinois. The company provides consumer services, such as demand, savings, and time deposit accounts; home mortgage loans; installment loans; and brokerage services. It also offers secured and unsecured commercial loans, including real estate loans to companies and individuals for business purposes, and to governmental units; and agricultural and agricultural real estate loans secured by crops, machinery, and real estate to finance capital improvements and farm operations, as well as acquisitions of livestock and machinery. In addition, the company offers ATM and debit cards, and Internet banking services. Further, it provides insurance and farm management services; and equity, bond, and mutual fund portfolio management services. As of December 31, 2010, it managed or a dministrated 907 trust accounts. The company operates through 21 offices in 17 in Aurora, DePue, Genoa, Hampshire, Henry, Huntley, Millbrook, Minooka, Newark, Oglesby, Peru, Plainfield, Plano, Princeton, Sandwich, Somonauk, and Spring Valley; and 25 automated teller machines. Princeton National Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Princeton, Illinois.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Watch For 2014: CenterState Banks Inc.(CSFL)

CenterState Banks, Inc., a multi bank holding company, provides consumer and commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, and industries in central Florida. Its deposit products include demand interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing accounts, money market deposit accounts, time deposits, direct deposits, savings accounts, negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also offers real estate loans to individuals and businesses for the purchase, improvement of, or investment in real estate; for the construction of single-family residential and commercial units; and for the development of single-family residential building lots. In addition, it provides commercial loans to individuals and small-to-medium sized businesses for working capital, equipment purchases, and various other business purposes; and consumer loans that comprise loans to individuals for various consumer purposes, and business purpose loans payable on an instal lment basis. Further, the company offers safe deposit services, cash management, notary services, money orders, night depository, travelers? checks, cashier?s checks, domestic collections, savings bonds, bank drafts, automated teller services, drive-in tellers, banking by mail and Internet, and automated teller machine cards. Additionally, it provides mutual funds, annuities, and other products. The company also sells fixed income securities; and provides correspondent bank deposits and checking accounts, as well as safe-keeping services, bond accounting services for correspondents, and asset/liability consulting services for small to medium size financial institutions. As of July 18, 2011, it had 52 full service branch banking locations in 14 counties throughout central Florida. CenterState Banks, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Davenport, Florida.

Is Intuitive Surgical Destined for Greatness?

Investors love stocks that consistently beat the Street without getting ahead of their fundamentals and risking a meltdown. The best stocks offer sustainable market-beating gains, with robust and improving financial metrics that support strong price growth. Does Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG  ) fit the bill? Let's look at what its recent results tell us about its potential for future gains.

What we're looking for
The graphs you're about to see tell Intuitive Surgical's story, and we'll be grading the quality of that story in several ways:

Growth: Are profits, margins, and free cash flow all increasing? Valuation: Is share price growing in line with earnings per share? Opportunities: Is return on equity increasing while debt to equity declines? Dividends: Are dividends consistently growing in a sustainable way?

What the numbers tell you
Now, let's look at Intuitive Surgical's key statistics:

ISRG Total Return Price Chart

ISRG Total Return Price data by YCharts

Passing Criteria

3-Year* Change

Grade

Revenue growth > 30%

70.7%

Pass

Improving profit margin

17.8%

Pass

Free cash flow growth > Net income growth

65.4% vs. 101%

Fail

Improving EPS

98.9%

Pass

Stock growth (+ 15%) < EPS growth

33% vs. 98.9%

Pass

Source: YCharts.
*Period begins at end of Q3 2010.

ISRG Return on Equity (TTM) Chart

ISRG Return on Equity (TTM) data by YCharts

Passing Criteria

3-Year* Change

Grade

Improving return on equity

(1.6%)

Fail

Declining debt to equity

No debt

Pass

Source: YCharts.
*Period begins at end of Q3 2010.

How we got here and where we're going
We looked at Intuitive Surgical last year, when it earned six out of seven passing grades, but it has lost one of those passes in its second assessment to finish with five out of seven possible passing grades for 2013. While gains in net income have surpassed free cash flow growth during our three-year tracking period, Intuitive's nominal trailing 12-month free cash flow has yet to fall below net income during this time (although it is close after the company's latest earnings). This is an excellent performance, but can Intuitive recover its lost passing grade and stop the slide that's hurt it since this summer? Let's dig deeper to find out.

Intuitive Surgical's stock has been battered by worse-than-expected third-quarter results, which included the first year-over-year quarterly revenue decline in company history, coming on the heels of an underwhelming second quarter this summer. Fool contributor Rupert Hargreaves notes that the FDA's initiated an investigation on Intuitive's da Vinci surgical robotics systems, after it found several discrepancies in its incident reports. As a result, quarterly sales of the da Vinci declined from 155 units to 101 units, a drop that can only be partly blamed on slowing demand for medical devices in the U.S. Intuitive may have underperformed compared to recently acquired MAKO Surgical (NASDAQ: MAKO  ) and Accuray (NASDAQ: ARAY  ) over the past year, but it remains the 800-pound gorilla among these industry peers.

ISRG Total Return Price Chart

ISRG Total Return Price data by YCharts

My Foolish colleague Dan Caplinger notes that the Obamacare has already had a huge impact on the U.S. health care industry, as companies face an additional 2.3% tax on medical devices. Hospitals have also faced substantial cuts in Medicare reimbursement and steeper penalties for failing to comply with certain readmission guidelines. As a result, hospitals have been hesitant to spend large amounts of cash on Intuitive's robot systems, which typically cost more than $1.5 million apiece. Hedge fund Lone Pine Capital recently sold its stake in Intuitive for $430 million, citing anemic sales growth of yjr da Vinci systems in the U. S. The new Obamacare restrictions have also forced fellow medical-device maker Stryker (NYSE: SYK  ) to slash around 1,170 jobs, while Edwards Lifesciences sold its Sapien heart valve segment to maintain its dominant position in the U.S markets.

Intuitive has also been facing fierce competition from more specialized surgical robot makers like Accuray and MAKO Surgical, which was recently acquired by Stryker for $1.65 billion. Fool contributor Leo Sun notes that MAKO's robotic surgical arms -- the RIO system and MAKOplasty Total Hip Arthroplasty -- help surgeons treat osteoarthritic diseases with minimal invasiveness, while Accuray's cancer treatment systems such as CyberKnife and TomoTherapy have been in demand because of their unmatched advantages over chemotherapy and other standard treatments. Johnson & Johnson and Covidien have also introduced new surgical treatments that are faster and cheaper than Intuitive's da Vinci system. The combination of new regulatory restrictions and tougher competition could very well undermine Intuitive's position as one of the best health care stocks heading into 2014.

Putting the pieces together
Today, Intuitive Surgical has many of the qualities that make up a great stock, but no stock is truly perfect. Digging deeper can help you uncover the answers you need to make a great buy -- or to stay away from a stock that's going nowhere.

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Sunday, December 15, 2013

Holiday shopping spree not for everyone

NEW YORK (AP) — Many Americans are watching the annual holiday spending ritual from the sidelines this year.

Money is still tight for some. Others are fed up with commercialism of the holidays. Still others are waiting for bigger bargains.

And people like Lark-Marie Anton Menchini are more thoughtful about their purchases. The New York public relations executive says in the past she'd buy her children up to eight Christmas gifts each, but this year they're getting three apiece. The leftover money is going toward their college savings.

"We told them Santa is ... being very conscious of how many gifts he puts on his sleigh," Menchini, 36, says.

Top 10 Medical Companies For 2014

Despite an improving economy, most workers are not seeing meaningful wage increases. And some of those who can splurge say the brash commercialism around the holidays — many more stores are opening for business on Thanksgiving — is a turnoff.

But perhaps the biggest factor is that shoppers are less motivated than ever by holiday sales. Since the Great Recession, retailers have been dangling more discounts throughout the year, so Americans have learned to hold out for even deeper holiday savings on clothes, electronics and more. To stay competitive and boost sales, retailers are slashing prices further during their busiest season of the year, which is cutting into their own profit margins.

There aren't reliable figures on how many people plan to shop during the holidays. But early data points to a shift in holiday spending.

The National Retail Federation estimates that sales during the start to the official start to season — the four-day weekend that began on Thanksgiving Day — dropped 2.9% from last year to $57.4 billion. That would mark the first decline in the seven years the trade group has tracked spending.

And during the week afterward — which ended on Sunday — sales fell an! other 2.9% compared with a year ago, according to data tracker ShopperTrak, which did not give dollar amounts. Meanwhile, the number of shoppers in stores plunged nearly 22%.

The numbers are sobering for retailers, which depend on making up to 40% of their revenue in the last two months of the year. They suggest shifts in the attitudes of U.S. shoppers that could force stores to reshape their strategies:

SHOPPERS WANT DEALS

Stores slashed prices during the recession to get financially-strapped shoppers in stores and to better compete with the cheaper prices of online retailers like Amazon. But shoppers got used to those deals and now won't buy without them. The constant discounting has blunted the "wow" factor of sales during the holidays.

For instance, some retailers were offering discounts of 40% or more on the day after Thanksgiving known as Black Friday. But Jennifer Ambrosh, 40 was unimpressed with the "deals" she saw on that day. "There's a lot of hype, but ... the deals aren't that good," Ambrosh, an accountant, says.

Overall, the retail federation expects spending in November and December to rise 3.9% to $602.1 billion. But to get that growth, analysts say retailers will need to discount heavily, which eats away profits.

There are signs that profits for the quarter that includes the holiday season are being hurt by the discounting. Wal-Mart and American Eagle Outfitters are among 47 retailers that have slashed their outlooks for either the quarter or the year.

Overall, retailers' earnings growth is expected to be up 2.1%, according to research firm Retail Metrics. That would be the worst performance since profit fell 6.7% in the second quarter of 2009 when the country was in a recession.

SCRUTINIZING PURCHASES

The recession not only taught Americans to expect bargains. It also showed them that they could make do with less. And in the economic recovery, many have maintained that frugality.

So whereas in a better economy, Americans would ! make both! big and small purchases, in this economy they're being more thoughtful and making choices about what to buy.

Analysts say that hasn't boded well for retailers that sell clothing, shoes and holiday items. That's because Americans are buying more big-ticket items over the holidays.

Government figures show that retail sales were up 0.7% in November, the biggest gain in five months. But the increase was led by autos, appliances and electronics.

Auto sales jumped 1.8%, furniture purchases rose 1.2% and sales at electronics and appliances stores rose 1.1%. Meanwhile, sales at department stores and clothing chains were weak.

Americans are leaning toward big purchases for two reasons. They want to take advantage of low interest rates. And since many paid down debt since the recession, they feel more comfortable using credit cards again for such purchases.

But they won't do that and buy smaller items. "This is still a weak, fragile shopper," says Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, a retail consultancy.

Retailers including Macy's and Target in recent months have said that shoppers' focus on big-ticket items has put a damper on sales of discretionary items, and the retail federation says it has hurt holiday sales in particular.

HOLIDAY CONSUMERISM

Black Friday used to be the official kickoff to the buying season, but more than a dozen chains opened on Thanksgiving this year.

That didn't sit well with some shoppers who viewed it as an encroachment on family time. Some threatened to boycott stores that opened on the holiday, while others decided to forgo shopping altogether.

In a poll of 6,200 shoppers conducted for the retail federation prior to the start of the season, 38% didn't plan to shop during the Thanksgiving weekend, up from 34.8% the year before.

Ruth Kleinman, 30, isn't planning to shop the entire season in part because she's disheartened by the holiday openings. The New Yorker says the holiday season "has really disint! egrated."!

While some shoppers didn't approve, analysts say stores will need to open on the holiday to appeal to the masses. Overall sales declined over the holiday weekend, but several retailers said there were big crowds on Thanksgiving. "Customers clearly showed that they wanted to be out shopping," says Amy von Walter, a Best Buy spokeswoman.

Analysts say stores will need to redefine Thanksgiving as a family tradition beyond sitting at the table eating turkey to make more shoppers comfortable.

"They have to show that they're maintaining a family tradition in new ways," says Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst at market research firm NPD Group.

AP Business Writer Mae Anderson in New York contributed to this report.

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