Saturday, June 14, 2014

Walt Disney: A Sustainable Business Model

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) has been charming children's hearts for decades, with its world-famous characters. And although today's youngest generation still enjoys the classics, tastes have changed. Yet this company has been highly successful in adapting its movies and entertainment strategy to modern day standards. Today, the firm has established itself as a globally recognized brand, with a diversified income strategy and a wide economic moat. But will this entertainment factory remain a win-win investment in the future?

Diversity to Reduce Risk

One of Walt Disney Co.'s key strengths is its diverse portfolio of renowned brands, the likes of which include ESPN, ABC, Walt Disney, Marvel Entertainment, Touchstone Pictures and Lucasfilms. In addition to this, the firm own a 42% stake in A&E, The History Channel and Lifetime Networks. These television networks and movie studios have laid the groundwork for the company's live-action and animated film production, but have also helped achieve a strong and steadily growing revenue stream. And with over half of all profits deriving from the entertainment networks, these brands are considered the company's backbone.

In this scenario, one of the key players is 24-hour domestic sports cable channel ESPN, along with ESPN2 and its sister channels. The popular sports channel reels in 75% of cable network sales at Walt Disney Co., due to its large viewer base of 100 million U.S. households. Also, ESPN benefits from a dual income stream, defined by advertising dollars and affiliate fees, leaving it at a competitive advantage over other broadcast networks that rely solely on ads.

Nevertheless, ESPN isn't all that Walt Disney Co. has to offer. In 2013 the company entered into content distribution agreements for its television series and movies. The deals with Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) are meant to help strengthen the firm's multi-channel subscription model by increasing the platforms for content delivery. Additionally, this strategy will balance future revenue losses in the DVD segment, as a consequence of the cheaper viewing alternatives.

Theme Parks and Overseas Expansion

Walt Disney Co. undoubtedly has a talent for monetizing its characters and franchises across multiple platforms, but its theme parks are the crown jewel. These are an especially attractive and unique segment in the company's assets, mainly because they are almost impossible to replicate. The Parks and Resorts division accounts for 25% of operating profits and after the 2009 crisis, revenues have been recovering at a fast pace. During the last quarter of 2013, revenue in this segment experienced an 8.5% increase, while operating income marked a 15% rise. In fact, the company is focused on further deploying its capital towards the expansion of the Parks and Resorts business, thereby creating new growth opportunities.

Looking forward, Walt Disney Co. is aiming to expand its operations overseas, in the emerging nations China, Russia and India. The Shanghai Disney Resort, for example, will contain a Shanghai Disneyland, two themed hotels and a retail, dining and entertainment venue, and is set to be China's largest theme park by 2015. Despite possible unfavourable foreign currency translations, this firm should be able to sustain its growth given its multiple revenue sources. Furthermore, the entertainment giant has been highly successful at managing its cash flow, returning large sums of its free cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. The 71.3 million repurchased shares in fiscal 2013, worth close to $4.1 billion, are expected to increase in 2014 and will range between $6 and $8 billion in returns.

Despite the risks of the economy deteriorating and primetime ratings fall, which could affect advertising dollars and revenue generating capabilities, I remain highly bullish about Walt Disney Co.'s future. The dual business model of theme parks and television networks, have contributed to a steady 40% revenue growth over the past decade, leading to a sum total of $45 billion in 2013. With a 20.50% operating margin and trading at a price premium of merely 14% compared to the industry's average, I believe this company has a bright future. Investment guru Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) also put his trust in Walt Disney, as he recently acquired nearly 200,000 company shares.           

 

Disclosure: Patricio Kehoe holds no position in any stocks mentioned.


Currently 4.33/512345

Rating: 4.3/5 (3 votes)

Email FeedsSubscribe via Email RSS FeedsSubscribe RSS Comments Please leave your comment:
More GuruFocus Links
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
MORE GURUFOCUS LINKS
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
DIS STOCK PRICE CHART 73.27 (1y: +45%) $(function() { var seriesOptions = [], yAxisOptions = [], name = 'DIS', display = ''; Highcharts.setOptions({ global: { useUTC: true } }); var d = new Date(); $current_day = d.getDay(); if ($current_day == 5 || $current_day == 0 || $current_day == 6){ day = 4; } else{ day = 7; } seriesOptions[0] = { id : name, animation:false, color: '#4572A7', lineWidth: 1, name : name.toUpperCase() + ' stock price', threshold : null, data : [[1358143200000,50.59],[1358229600000,51.09],[1358316000000,51.53],[1358402400000,52.41],[1358488800000,52.34],[1358834400000,52.73],[1358920800000,53.95],[1359007200000,53.95],[1359093600000,54.38],[1359352800000,54.36],[1359439200000,53.99],[1359525600000,53.79],[1359612000000,53.88],[1359698400000,54.59],[1359957600000,53.9],[1360044000000,54.29],[1360130400000,54.52],[1360216800000,54.36],[1360303200000,54.66],[1360562400000,54.75],[1360648800000,54.95],[1360735200000,54.96],[1360821600000,54.88],[1360908000000,55.61],[1361253600000,55.73],[1361340000000,54.6],[1361426400000,54.17],[1361512800000,54.25],[1361772000000,53.59],[1361858400000,53.9],[1361944800000,54.48],[1362031200000,54.59],[1362117600000,55.33],[1362376800000,55.8],[1362463200000,56.48],[1362549600000,56.36],[1362636000000,56.32],[1362722400000,57.39],[1362978000000,57.66],[1363064400000,57.11],[1363150800000,57.34],[1363237200000,57.75],[1363323600000,57.58],[1363582800000,56.83],[1363669200000,56.31],[1363755600000,56.94],[1363842000000,56.31],[1363928400000,56.78],[1364187600000,56.21],[1364274000000,56.63],[1364360400000,56.47],[1364446800000,56.8],[1364792400000,56.69],[1364878800000,57.46],[1364965200000,57.25],[1365051600000,57.59],[1365138000000,57.7],[1365397200000,58.82],[1365483600000,59.14],[1365570000000,60.11],[1365656400000,60.55],[1365742800000,60.55],[1366002000000,58.88],[1366088400000,60.75],[1366174800000,60.68],[1366261200000,59.99],[1366347600000,61.56],[1366606800000,62.01],[1366693200000,62.59],[1366779600000,61.94],[1366866000000,62],[1366952400000,61.87],[1367211600000,63],[1367298000000,62.84],[1367384400000,63.21],[1367470800000,63.88],[1367557200000,64.8],[1367816400000,65.06],[1367902800000,66.07],[1367989200000,65.99],[1368075600000,66.67],[1368162000000,67.2],[1368421200000,67.32],[1368507600000,67.47],[1368594000000,67.67],[1368680400000,66.47],[1368766800000,66.58],[1369026000000,66.12],[1369112400000,65.83],[1369198800000,65.57],[1369285200000,65.23],[1369371600000,65.49],[1369717200000,66.69],[1! 369803600000,66.26],[1369890000000,64.65],[1369976400000,63.08],[1370235600000,63.8],[1370322000000,64.35],[1370408400000,63.12],[1370494800000,63.14],[1370581

Top 5 Defensive Companies To Invest In 2015

Top 5 Defensive Companies To Invest In 2015: CombiMatrix Corporation(CBMX)

CombiMatrix Corporation, a molecular diagnostics company, operates primarily in the fields of genetic analysis and molecular diagnostics in the United States. The company, through its wholly owned subsidiary, CombiMatrix Diagnostics, operates a diagnostics reference laboratory that provides DNA-based clinical diagnostic testing services to physicians, hospitals, and other laboratories in two primary areas, including prenatal and postnatal developmental disorders, and oncology. It offers a suite of developmental disorder array tests on the prenatal and postnatal application of array-comparative genomic hybridization in diagnosing genomic syndromes associated with developmental delays, autism spectrum disorders, dysmorphic features, and/or birth defects. The company also provides DNAarray?Heme Profile test to address various common hematological malignancies, including chronic lymphocytic leukemia; DNAarray?HER2 PRO test for breast cancer; and DNAarray?Tumor Profile test for the analysis of solid tumors, including breast, colon, lung, prostate, and brain tumors. In addition, it focuses on developing a series of drug compounds to address various oncology-related diseases. CombiMatrix Corporation was founded in 1995 and is based in Irvine, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One stock that's starting to trend within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is CombiMatrix (CBMX), which operates a diagnostics reference laboratory that provides DNA-based clinical diagnostic testing services to physicians, hospitals, clinics and other laboratories in the areas of prenatal and postnatal development disorders, and hematology/oncology genomics. This stock hasn't done much over the last three months, with shares up by just 1.4%.

    If you take a look at the chart for CombiMatrix, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending over the last few weeks, with shares mov! ing higher from its low of $2.14 to its recent high of $2.90 a share. During that move, shares of CBMX have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That uptrend has now pushed shares of CBMX within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CBMX if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.90 to $2.92 a share, and then once it clears its 200-day moving average at $2.96 to more near-term overhead resistance at $3.20 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 823,656 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then CBMX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.70 to $4.44 a share.

    Traders can look to buy CBMX off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day moving average at $2.57 a share or just below more support at $2.20 to $2.14 a share. One can also buy CBMX off strength once it starts to take out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • [By Bryan Murphy]

    Looking for a couple of long (bullish) trading ideas on a day when the market is dragging pretty much everything lower? There are two names that fit the bill...CombiMatrix Corp. (NASDAQ:CBMX) and Banro Corporation (NYSEMKT:BAA). CBMX is an "almost" small cap stock that deserves a place on your watchlist while we wait for it to do one more thing. Meanwhile, BAA is something worth going ahead and taking a swing on now, not despite the market's tumble, but because of it.

  • source from Top Penny Stocks For 2015:http://www.seekpennystocks.com/top-5-defensive-companies-to-invest-in-2015.html

Friday, June 13, 2014

How Taking Care of Your Knees Can Save You (Big) Money

Runner tying shoelace in front of the sea Alamy Protecting your knees is part of protecting your overall health, and protecting your health helps ensure your financial security. For runners, joint problems can creep up slowly, and runner's knee is among the most common. Even if you don't have minor pain or signs of weak knees, you'll want to take proper care of those joints -- especially if you're a runner. Bad form, injuries and nutrition can all contribute to gradually sorer knees, and sometimes osteoarthritis. You may think it's just a little pain to work through, but sore knees are often a sign of serious problems in the future. Ignoring that sign may cost you, in the form of a serious injury in the near future or a serious surgery in the more distant future. Either way, pretending it's no big deal is a risk you shouldn't take. For you, devoted runner, prevention and appropriate care mean you'll be a runner much longer. It means more miles, more races, more hours and more of that runner's high. It just might also mean more money in your pocket later. Here's why. 1. Knee surgery is insanely expensive. Not taking care of your knees can result in more than pain. Your knees might become deformed, or "bowed," from joint degeneration. Chronic inflammation might also result, which can make knee pain even worse. When that pain starts limiting your ability to carry out daily activities, or becomes unbearable, you might need knee replacement surgery. This is a major surgery with weeks of recovery time and physical therapy afterward, but more than 90 percent of recipients report rapid and substantial improvement.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Lululemon's Quarterly Profit Plunges 60%, CFO to Retire

A Lululemon Athletica retail store in Washington, DC. Kristoffer Tripplaar/Alamy NEW YORK -- Lululemon Athletica's first-quarter net income tumbled 60 percent, stung by a one-time tax adjustment. Its adjusted profit and revenue beat Wall Street's expectations for the quarter, but the Canadian yoga clothing company lowered its full-year earnings forecast Thursday and said that Chief Financial Officer John Currie plans to retire by fiscal year's end. The company is also starting up a $450 million share repurchase program. Lululemon (LULU) shares skidded 15 percent lower in afternoon trading. Lululemon has been working on improving its business since last spring when it pulled one of its popular yoga pants from stores because they were too sheer, which it blamed on a style change and production issues. Fixing the problem cost the company millions and made investors question quality control. The earnings report came a day after Lululemon founder Chip Wilson said that he voted against the re-election of outside directors Michael Casey and RoAnn Costin. Wilson, who has a 27 percent stake in the Canadian company, said that he believes board changes are needed to help increase shareholder value. For the period ended May 4, Lululemon earned $19 million, or 13 cents a share. A year earlier it earned $47.3 million, or 32 cents a share. The company said that the current quarter had a tax expense of $52.5 million, which included a non-recurring adjustment of $30.9 million for the planned repatriation of foreign earnings that will be used to fund a buyback program. The tax rate for the quarter, including the one-time adjustment, was 73.4 percent. The normalized rate before the adjustment would have been 30.1 percent. Stripping out the one-time adjustment, earnings were 34 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet predicted earnings of 32 cents a share. Revenue rose 11 percent to $384.6 million from $345.8 million, beating Wall Street's estimate of $381.7 million. Sales at stores open at least a year edged up 1 percent. This figure is a key indicator of a retailer's health because it excludes results from stores recently opened or closed. Lululemon anticipates full-year earnings of $1.71 to $1.76 a share when taking out the one-time tax adjustment related to the planned repatriation. Its prior guidance was for $1.80 to $1.90 a share. The retailer also revised its revenue forecast to a range of $1.77 billion to $1.8 billion. Previously it anticipated $1.77 billion to $1.82 billion in revenue. Analysts expect full-year earnings of $1.89 a share on revenue of $1.8 billion. Shares of Lululemon declined $6.67, or 15.1 percent, to $37.61 in afternoon trading. Its shares have fallen almost 25 percent so far this year through Wednesday's close. For the second quarter, the chain foresees earnings of 28 cents to 30 cents a share on revenue of $375 million to $380 million. Wall Street is calling for earnings of 36 cents a share on revenue of $387.1 million. Jim Duffy of Stifel Nicolaus cut Lululemon to "Hold" from "Buy." The analyst said in a client note that the full-year and second-quarter outlooks suggest traffic at the retailer's stores is "on a slippery slope." Duffy said this makes it hard to plan the business and may lead to inventory exceeding demand. Long term, the analyst said that he still believes in the franchise's value. Lululemon said Thursday that it will work with an executive search firm to find a replacement for Currie, who had worked at the company since 2007. Currie will assist with the transition process.

Top 5 Quality Stocks To Own For 2015

Top 5 Quality Stocks To Own For 2015: Bank of Ozarks Inc (OZRK)

Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. is a bank holding company. The Company owns an Arkansas state chartered subsidiary bank, Bank of the Ozarks (the Bank). At December 31, 2011, the Company, through the Bank, conducted banking operations through 111 offices, including 66 offices in Arkansas, 27 in Georgia, 10 in Texas, four in Florida, two in North Carolina, and one each in South Carolina and Alabama. Subsequent to December 31, 2011, the Company opened its 11th and 12th Texas offices in Austin and The Colony. The Company also owns Ozark Capital Statutory Trust II, Ozark Capital Statutory Trust III, Ozark Capital Statutory Trust IV and Ozark Capital Statutory Trust V, all 100%-owned finance subsidiary business trusts formed in connection with the issuance of certain subordinated debentures and related trust preferred securities, and, indirectly through the Bank, a subsidiary engaged in the development of real estate, a subsidiary that owns a private aircraft and various other entities that hold foreclosed assets or tax credits or engage in other activities. Effective July 31, 2013, Bank of the Ozarks Inc acquired the entire interest of The First National Bank of Shelby.

The Company provides a range of retail and commercial banking services. Deposit services include checking, savings, money market, time deposit and individual retirement accounts. Loan services include various types of real estate, consumer, commercial, industrial and agricultural loans and various leasing services. The Company also provides mortgage lending; treasury management services for businesses, individuals and non-profit and governmental entities, including wholesale lock box services; remote deposit capture services; trust and wealth management services for businesses, individuals and non-profit and governmental entities, including financial planning, money management, custodial services and corporate trust services; real estate appraisals; credit-re! lated life and d isability insurance; automated teller machines (ATMs); telep! hone banking; online and mobile banking services, including electronic bill pay; debit cards, gift cards and safe deposit boxes, among other products and services. Through third party providers, the Company offers credit cards for consumers and businesses, processing of merchant debit and credit card transactions, and full service investment brokerage services.

On January 14, 2011, the Company, through the Bank, entered into a purchase and assumption agreement, pursuant to which the Bank acquired the former Oglethorpe Bank (Oglethorpe) with two offices in Georgia, including Brunswick and St. Simons Island. On April 29, 2011, the Company, through the Bank, entered into a purchase and assumption agreement, pursuant to which the Bank acquired the former First Choice Community Bank (First Choice) with seven offices in Georgia, including Dallas, Newnan (2), Senoia, Sharpsburg, Douglasville and Carrollton. On July 1, 2011, the Company closed one of the offices in New nan, Georgia, and on October 26, 2011 the Company closed the office in Carrollton, Georgia.

Lending and Leasing Activities

The Companys primary source of income is interest earned from its loan and lease portfolio and its investment securities portfolio. The Companys portfolio of real estate loans includes loans secured by residential one- to four-family, non-farm/non-residential, agricultural, construction/land development, multifamily residential (five or more family) properties and other land loans. Non-farm/non-residential loans include those secured by real estate mortgages on owner-occupied commercial buildings of various types, leased commercial, retail and office buildings, hospitals, nursing and other medical facilities, hotels and motels, and other business and industrial properties. Agricultural real estate loans include loans secured by farmland and related improvements, including some loans guaranteed by the Far! m Service! Agency. Real estate construction/land development loans include loa! ns secure! d by vacant land, loans to finance land development or construction of industrial, commercial, residential or farm buildings or additions or alterations to existing structures. Included in the Companys residential one- to four-family loans are home equity lines of credit.

The Company offers a variety of real estate loan products that are generally amortized over five to thirty years. The Companys portfolio of consumer loans generally includes loans to individuals for household, family and other personal expenditures. The Companys commercial and industrial loan portfolio consists of loans for commercial, industrial and professional purposes, including loans to fund working capital requirements (such as inventory, floor plan and receivables financing), purchases of machinery and equipment and other purposes. The Company offers a variety of commercial and industrial loan arrangements, including term loans, balloon loans and lines of credit with the purpos e and collateral supporting a particular loan determining its structure. These loans are offered to businesses and professionals for short and medium terms on both a collateralized and uncollateralized basis. The Company obtains as collateral a lien on furniture, fixtures, equipment, inventory, receivables or other assets. The Companys leases are primarily equipment leases for commercial, industrial and professional purposes, have terms generally ranging up to 48 months and are collateralized by a lien on the lessees interest in the leased property.

The Companys portfolio of agricultural (non-real estate) loans includes loans for financing agricultural production, including loans to businesses or individuals engaged in the production of timber, poultry, livestock or crops. The Companys agricultural (non-real estate) loans are generally secured by farm machinery, livestock, crops, vehicles or other agricultural-related collateral. A portion of ! the Co m! panys portfolio of agricultural (non-real estate) loans ! consists ! of loans to individuals which would normally be characterized as consumer loans but for the fact that the individual borrowers are primarily engaged in the production of timber, poultry, livestock or crops.

Deposits

The Company offers an array of deposit products consisting of non-interest bearing checking accounts, interest bearing transaction accounts, business sweep accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, time deposits and individual retirement accounts. The Company acts as depository for a number of state and local Governments and Government agencies or instrumentalities. The Companys deposits come primarily from within the Companys trade area. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had $41 million in brokered deposits.

Other Banking Services

The Company offers an array of residential mortgage products, including long-term fixed and variable rate loans to be sold on a servicing-released basis in the s econdary market. The Company originates residential mortgage loans to be resold on the secondary market primarily through its banking offices located in Arkansas markets, many of its Texas banking offices and in certain of its acquired offices in the Southeastern United States. The Company offers a range of trust and wealth management services from its headquarters in Little Rock, Arkansas, with additional staff in Rogers, Arkansas. These trust and wealth management services include personal trusts, custodial accounts, investment management accounts, retirement accounts, corporate trust services, including trustee, paying agent and registered transfer agent services, and other incidental services. As of December 31, 2011, total trust assets were approximately $1.02 billion.

The Company offers treasury management products which are designed to provide specialized support to the treasury operations of business and public funds customers. The Companys treas! u ry man! agement services include automated clearing house serv! ices (dir! ect deposit, direct payment and electronic cash concentration and disbursement), wire transfer, zero balance accounts, current and prior day transaction reporting, lock box services, remote deposit capture services, automated credit line transfer, investment sweep accounts, reconciliation services, positive pay services, credit line analysis and account analysis. It offers an online banking service for both business customers and consumers. Through this service customers can access their account information, pay bills, transfer funds, view images of cancelled checks, reorder checks, buy the United States Savings Bonds, change addresses, issue stop payment requests, receive detailed statements and handle other banking business electronically. The Company also provides businesses and consumers the option to electronically receive monthly bank statements and provides a 13-month archive of monthly statements and cancelled check images.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Bank of the Ozarks (NASDAQ: OZRK) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $0.60 per share on revenue of $69.57 million.

    Emmis Communications (NASDAQ: EMMS) is expected to report its Q2 earnings.

  • [By Eric Volkman]

    Bank of the Ozarks (NASDAQ: OZRK  ) is rewarding its shareholders by paying a higher dividend. The company has declared a common stock dividend of $0.19 per share, to be handed out on July 19 to shareholders of record as of July 12. That amount is $0.02, or 12%, higher than the company's previous disbursement of $0.17 per share, which was paid in mid-April.

  • [By Marc Bastow]

    Arkansas-based Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) announced a 10.5% dividend increase to 21 cents per share, payable Oct. 18 to shareholders of record as of Oct. 11. This is the 13th consecutive quarter in which OZRK has raised its dividend.
    OZRK Dividend Yield: 1.77%

  • [By Marc Basto! w] Yet another bank, Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) raised its dividend 4.5% to 23 cents per share, payable April 18 to shareholders of record as of April 11.
    OZRK Dividend Yield: 1.37%

  • source from Top Penny Stocks For 2015:http://www.seekpennystocks.com/top-5-quality-stocks-to-own-for-2015.html

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Is Your Credit Card Debt Average? And What's Average?

Top High Dividend Companies To Invest In Right Now

B0FR95 Man removes cash from wallet  cash; man; money; removing; wallet; accessory; adult; billfold; dollar; dollars; fellow; ge Alamy Savvy consumers know that credit card debt is something to banish from your financial home if you can. But just how bad is your debt situation compared to others'?

4 Ways Women Are Better Investors Than Men

Best US Companies To Watch In Right Now

4 Ways Women Are Better Investors Than MenGetty Images The evidence is in: According to a number of studies from banks and investment firms over the past decade, women make better investors than men. The most recent, from the tax and advisory firm Rothstein Kass, found that hedge funds run by by women outperformed those managed by men by 6 percentage points over a nine-month period in 2012. Why do women, on average, do better? No one knows for sure. And, of course, there are plenty of exceptions like Warren Buffett. But when tallied over the long term, women generally produce better investment returns than men. There are four likely reasons: 1. Men are more competitive. You'd think this would be a good thing, right? But as in so many areas of investing, the obvious answer is not the right answer. For many men, the most important thing is not the absolute return of an investment, but whether or not they beat their rivals. This often leads male managers to make riskier bets, which are less likely to pay off. The second most important investment criteria for many men is bragging about their returns. And as we all know, men are less likely to ask for advice. Somehow it's seen as a mark of weakness. All this leads men to focus on the short term and lose sight of the real objective of investing: producing consistent, positive returns over an extended period of time. 2. Women take fewer risks. According to research by behavioral scientists, women as a rule are more risk-averse than men. Women are more inclined than men to wear seat belts, avoid cigarette smoking and get their blood pressure checked. They are 40 percent less likely to run yellow traffic lights. So it should come as no surprise that women gravitate toward safer investments and hold stock portfolios that are less volatile. One investment study concluded that when things go wrong, men get angry, while women become more fearful. Anger can lead people to take action that will lead to more losses, such as doubling down on losing investments or trying to "catch a falling knife." By contrast, fearful women are more likely to avoid market downturns in the first place, and then if they do suffer losses they are more likely pull in the reins and step away from big disasters. 3. Women do more homework. Women are less confident than men, and therefore less likely to be deluded into believing they know more than they do. They want to be in control, and therefore do more research to find out exactly what they are investing in. Women also have more realistic ideas about what an investment can reasonably deliver. In short, they have lower expectations. Therefore, they are less likely to jump on the "next big thing" or fall for a "can't miss" stock tip. One report found that a quarter of the men surveyed admitted they would gamble on a "hot" investment without doing any real research, while only half as many women would make that same mistake. As a result, women trade less frequently. They incur fewer transaction costs and fewer tax consequences. Women commit to their investments, and because they've done their homework, are more likely to honor their commitments. They are more patient investors and typically do not get spooked by a short-term hiccup in a company's performance. 4. Women realize they are not in control. Surveys have shown that women are more likely than men to attribute success to factors outside themselves like luck or fate. This apparent contradiction – aiming to achieve control when you know you can only control so much -- gives women the perspective they need to avoid panic. And yet, paradoxically, it also allows them to admit when they have made a mistake. Women look out for the next storm. When it arrives they batten down the hatches and ride it out. They know the market is like the ocean. It is much bigger than any one investor, subject to huge global forces. But over time there's a certain ebb and flow, and if you're a good navigator you can sail on to richer shores. So how is it that the best investor of all, the legendary Warren Buffett, happens to be a man? Perhaps you should ask author Louann Lofton, who wrote the book: "Warren Buffett Invests Like a Girl: And Why You Should Too."

Where to Invest When Coffee Prices Go North

LinkedIn Logo RSS Logo James Brumley Popular Posts: 3 Dividend Stocks You Can Easily UpgradeThis Year’s 5 Hottest Marijuana Stocks5 Solar Stocks Shining Bright in 2014 Recent Posts: Where to Invest When Coffee Prices Go North 3 Dividend Stocks You Can Easily Upgrade OTC Cialis? Pfizer’s Viagra Will Be Just Fine View All Posts

If you’re a coffee drinker, prepare to pay higher prices for Maxwell House when you buy it at the grocery store. Kraft Foods Group (KRFT) announced this week it will be raising prices on its Maxwell House coffee in the near future after wholesale coffee beam prices soared earlier in the year. All told, Arabica coffee prices jumped from $1.20 per pound in January to $2.20 by mid-April.

While wholesale coffee prices have pulled back a little since then, the current price of $1.65 per pound is still too significant to simply absorb and chalk up as the cost of doing business. That’s why J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) also announced last week it would be cranking up prices on its brands.

While the maneuver may make it tougher for coffee drinkers to quench their thirsts for the caffeinated drink, the impact of higher coffee prices on shareholders of KRFT and SJM stock isn’t quite as cut-and-dried.

Just How Out-of-Control Are Coffee Prices?

To hear the cursory news coverage of rising coffee prices and the corner they’ve painted J.M. Smucker Company and Kraft Foods Group into, it would be easy for investors to think both companies — not to mention brewed coffee retailers like Starbucks (SBUX) and Dunkin’ Donuts (DNKN) — are on the ropes here. As is so often the case, though, a little more history and a lot more context may be needed.

Consider the fact that, even with the January-to-April runup, Arabica coffee beans (the proverbial “good stuff” that most processors and consumers want) still came nowhere close to the peak price of more than $3.00 per pound seen in May of 2011. That was the last time either Kraft Foods or J.M. Smucker officially raised their coffee prices.

Another piece of relevant context: When Arabica coffee prices started to subside in mid-2011 all the way to a multi-year low of $1.08 per pound by November of last year, coffee suppliers didn’t lower their retail prices accordingly.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after retail ground coffee prices peaked at $5.76 per pound (all brands) in August of 2011, they never really contracted, and certainly never came close to mirroring the 65% plunge we saw from wholesale coffee prices between mid-2011 and late-2011. The lowest coffee prices — on average – that consumers have seen on their grocer’s shelves since 2011 was an average of $4.95 per pound in December of last year. That’s only 14% below peak levels from two and a half years earlier

81014 coffee prices Where to Invest When Coffee Prices Go North

Ditto for Starbucks. The world’s most prolific coffee house didn’t lower its prices last year, either, after raising them in 2011, even though the rising wholesale prices that sparked the price hike had fallen back by nearly two-thirds from their peak.

Point being, if you think Kraft Foods Group, J.M. Smucker Company, and even Starbucks and Dunkin’ Donuts are in trouble now because they’re going to be forced to choose between marketability and profitability, think again. There’s still plenty of room for both in the spread between wholesale and retail coffee prices.

Who Wins and Who Loses?

As for which coffee stocks are in trouble now and which will be fine … truth be told, they’ll all be fine.

Even in 2011, when Arabica coffee prices were soaring, consumers were saying one thing and doing another. How so? Despite retail prices for ground coffee jumping from $3.93 per pound in August of 2010 to $5.76 in August of 2011 (a 46% increase), the ready-to-brew coffee industry’s revenue was up across the board.

Sales grew for everything from ground coffee to beans to the single-serve packets from Green Mountain (GMCR). Ground coffee sales grew 16% in 2011, while whole-bean sales were up 7.6%. The then-burgeoning single-serve movement roughly doubled 2010′s total sales of single-serve coffee pods in 2011.

It wasn’t just the ready-to-brew coffee industry that survived 2011′s price surge either. Starbucks — arguably the name most sensitive to rising wholesale coffee prices — saw higher gross margins in fiscal 2011 than it did in 2012. Gross margins grew from 26.3% in 2010 to 27.2% in 2011.

So much for the theory that coffee was going to price itself out of the market.

Investors searching for opportunities in the fallout may find that SJM stock and KRFT stock are better off than other coffee names in the wake of the price hike, especially now that Arabica coffee prices have pulled back from peak levels hit a couple months ago. Although coffee is only a small part of each company’s business, wider coffee margins should actually help the overall bottom lines for each name, even as both are painting an alarming picture.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Spotify adds Led Zeppelin and free new mobile o…

NEW YORK — Spotify founder and CEO Daniel Ek says fans of the popular Swedish-based global streaming service spent 4 ½ billion hours listening to music on the service in 2013. Unless those people happened to be premium subscribers forking over $10 a month, they weren't listening on their smartphones.

On Wednesday Spotify unveiled a new ad-based service for mobile users that will permit those folks to access to Spotify's 20+million song catalog for free. And in a major coup for Spotify, that catalog will now include the works of Led Zeppelin, the legendary band that until this deal had withheld its music from streaming services.

As part of the new mobile offering, you'll be able to stream the playlists that you created on Spotify or the playlists from other users that you follow, on your phone. You can also discover new music, or dive into a favorite performer's entire back catalog, without the kind of restrictions that would only let you listen to a track from that artist once every 20 minutes or so.

Indeed, given a chance to preview the new mobile offering ahead of launch, I listened to more than an hour of Frank Sinatra, interrupted only every few songs by short advertisements from the likes of the U.S. Postal Service and Xbox One.

"The smartphone is the predominant way that people consume music," Ek says. "And we want to be where people actually listen to music."

Ek spoke to me ahead of the Wednesday event in a conference room dedicated to Radio City Music Hall at Spotify's New York offices, with images of (among others) Sinatra, Stevie Wonder, and Elton John.

"While Spotify has very high reviews, if you look at the actual reviews in an app store it's quite polarizing," says Ek. He pointed out that Spotify gets a lot of 5-star reviews, but also its share of 1-star reviews. "And when you look at the 1-stars, almost every single one of them is like `I thought this should be free or it was free.'"

Of course, Ek is banking on the belief that the new free mobile! offering will not only help Spotify expand a member base north of 20 million active users globally, but get more people to join the paid subscriber ranks. About 6 million currently pay. (The U.S. is Spotify's biggest market.)

5 Best Industrial Disributor Stocks To Own For 2015

"The strongest correlation to paying is usage," he says. "The more we get you to use the service the more likely it is you're paying."

Why continue to pay up? For starters while you can listen to any artist via the free new mobile tier, you must listen in shuffle or random mode. You cannot choose the given track you want to hear now on demand, without being a subscriber. During my listening session with The Chairman of the Board, I couldn't play It Was A Very Good Year or All The Way when I wanted to hear them, though I figured I'd hear such classics soon enough because they were in the Sinatra playlist I was shuffling. You can eyeball the songs in the playlist, you just don't know the order in which they'll play. (I couldn't listen to Led Zeppelin ahead of today's announcements.)

Moreover, only premium subscribers can download music to their phones to listen to offline, a boon of course to those of us who spend a fair amount of time on airplanes. And paying customers aren't subjected to ads. Ek says those who do get ads hear about 2 1/2 to 3 minutes per hour compared to 12 to 13 minutes on commercial radio.

Spotify also extended a big time benefit to people who access the service via the iPad or other tablets. As of Wednesday the company now treats them the same as if you were listening to streams on a desktop or laptop PC. What that means is that unlike on the mobile phone, you can choose songs on demand whenever you want to hear them, provided you also take in some ads, same as on other computers.

Spotify's latest moves come during a time of intense competition in a business that in one for! m or anot! her includes Amazon, Apple, Google, Rdio, Rhapsody, Pandora, Slacker and others. Beats Music is expected to launch its own digital music service early next year as is YouTube. Google recently made available its Google Music Play app available for iOS. Last October, Rdio made its personalized streaming stations free to users on mobile platforms.

"I'm not necessarily afraid of competition. I think it will just further validate the space," Ek says.

Spotify's CEO admits the company isn't profitable yet. "We're still early on in this story. We're taking every single dollar that we make on subscriptions and we're putting them back both to the music industry (labels in licensing fees) and (in) launching new markets."

Indeed, Spotify has gone from 17 markets at the start of the year to 32. "For me we're really focusing one, two, three on growth, and not on profitability."

"Not only are we licensing for every single territory that we go in we actually set up offices to have local people on the ground—ad sales, label relations, it's a huge investment on our end. That's what's keeping us from being profitable."

The addition of Led Zeppelin will only help.

NSA spying hurts business of large U.S. hardwar…

SAN FRANCISCO — With evidence mounting that NSA spying has damaged the business of some of the largest U.S. technology companies, the question now is how long it will take them to win back the trust of overseas customers.

Without any changes in U.S. law that restrict the agency's ability to use tech for surveillance, the answer may be "never."

That may be the case in China, where IBM, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard and, most notably, Cisco Systems have reported substantial drops in sales since the NSA surveillance program came to light.

Yet sales are falling for several of these giants not only in China but in other parts of Asia and in other developing economies, too, and the trend may have as much to do with privacy concerns as with the pace of global economic growth.

Cisco, whose switches and routers lie at the core of Internet traffic around the globe, saw its top five emerging markets post year-over-year order declines between 18% and 30% in its most recent quarter.

"It was pretty brutal," Cisco CEO John Chambers said on a conference call last month.

Chambers was hesitant to blame security concerns for the company's performance worldwide.

Hot Cheap Companies To Watch In Right Now

John Shinal, technology columnist for USA TODAY.(Photo: USA TODAY)

He called the impact on the company's total emerging markets business "fairly nominal," and pointed to macroeconomic uncertainty and the introduction of new products that overseas customers are cautious about investing in.

"I do think we're seeing a slowdown in their decision-making, and in their economies," Chamber said on the call. "I ! do not think (privacy) is the major factor across all emerging markets. I do think it is a factor, however, in China."

It's true Cisco this year has been rolling out new, expensive switching and routing platforms, trying to sell expensive gear to foreign phone companies, large businesses and governments just as the NSA revelations were disclosed.

The technology transition is proving to be a tough sell for the company, because it's hard to alleviate customers' security concerns if they believe Cisco's gear has a back door that enables NSA snooping — especially when one of Cisco's selling points has been that its equipment is secure.

While Chambers was careful to parse his words regarding the impact of those concerns, another Cisco executive on the conference call last month went a bit further.

"The issue has caused a number of customers to pause and re-evaluate," said Robert Lloyd, the company's president and head of sales, adding "it's not having a material impact, but it's certainly affecting decision-making" in emerging markets, which comprise a fifth of the company's sales.

Given Cisco's emerging market order growth went from 13% for the quarter ended in April to 12% in the most recent period — post NSA-flap — it appears privacy concerns are having a material impact.

But it's not just Cisco that's having trouble in emerging markets like China.

IBM last month reported a 22% decline in revenue from China, which contributed to a 4% drop in the company's quarterly profit.

HP said all of its businesses in China had year-over-year sales drops last quarter — except in networking gear, in which it competes against Cisco. HP posted a 3% rise in sales.

All this happened as China's economy grew almost 8% in the third quarter.

China may prove to be an exceptional case, as the country views the U.S. as a strategic rival and has punished American companies before for various reasons.

Earlier this year, for example, Apple's iPhone sales growt! h there d! id a reversal after the company was publicly chastised in China for its warranty practices.

Cisco has a long and complicated history with the country, which it has accused of allowing a rival, Huawei Technologies, to steal Cisco's intellectual property.

Still, if China's new rulers believe U.S. hardware and software makers are helping a strategic rival to spy on it, U.S. companies will likely see sales there continue to fall.

And if the same concerns grip other overseas customers and governments, American tech executives may have a tough time convincing them otherwise.

John Shinal has covered tech and financial markets for 15 years at Bloomberg, BusinessWeek, the San Francisco Chronicle, Dow Jones MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal Digital Network and others

Mid-Day Market Update: U.S. Stocks Turn Red; OmniVision Shares Tumble On Weak Outlook

Midway through trading Wednesday, the Dow traded down 0.28 percent to 15,869.45 while the NASDAQ tumbled 0.17 percent to 4,030.50. The S&P also fell, dropping 0.32 percent to 1,789.49.

Top Headline
Express (NYSE: EXPR) issued a downbeat earnings forecast for the holiday quarter.

Express now projects a Q4 profit of $0.66 to $0.71 per share, versus analysts' estimates of $0.78 per share.

Express reported its Q3 net income of $19.3 million, or $0.23 per share, up from $17.4 million, or $0.20 per share, in the year-ago period. However, analysts expected a profit of $0.25 per share. Its sales climbed 7% to $503 million, while same-store sales gained 5% in the period.

Equities Trading UP
OncoMed Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: OMED) shot up 8.62 percent to $30.09 after the company initiated Phase 1B trial of WNT-parthway-target antibody. Jefferies lifted the price target on the stock from $27 to $46.

Shares of G-III Apparel Group (NASDAQ: GIII) got a boost, shooting up 10.65 percent to $64.50 after the company reported upbeat Q3 results and raised its FY14 forecast.

BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE) was also up, gaining 11.79 percent to $59.66 after Bloomberg reported that the company is working with Wells Fargo on a possible sale.

Equities Trading DOWN
Shares of Express (NYSE: EXPR) were down 22.82 percent to $19.04 after the company reported downbeat Q3 earnings and issued a weak Q4 earnings forecast.

OmniVision Technologies (NASDAQ: OVTI) shares tumbled 6.32 percent to $14.98 after the company issued downbeat third-quarter forecast.

Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD) was down, falling 7.90 percent to $51.16 after the company's CEO Edward Lampert cut his stake in the company to 48.4% from 55.4%.

Commodities
In commodity news, oil traded up 0.69 percent to $96.70, while gold traded up 0.39 percent to $1,225.60.

Silver traded up 1.34 percent Wednesday to $19.32, while copper rose 2.02 percent to $3.23.

Eurozone
European shares were lower today. The Spanish Ibex Index tumbled 0.58 percent, while Italy's FTSE MIB Index declined 0.16 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX dropped 0.87 percent and the French CAC 40 declined 0.57 percent while U.K. shares fell 0.30 percent.

Economics
The MBA's index of mortgage application activity dropped 12.80% in the week ended November 29.

Private-sector employers added 215,000 jobs in November, according to Automatic Data Processing. However, economists were expecting an addition of 170,000 jobs in the month.

U.S. trade deficit dropped 5.4% to $40.6 billion in October. However, economists were expecting the deficit to decline to $40.0 billion in the month. The nation's exports increased 1.8% to $192.7 billion, while imports rose 0.4% to $233.3 billion.

The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 53.90 in November, versus a prior reading of 55.40. However, economists were expecting a reading of 55.00.

Sales of new US homes surged 25.4% to an annual rate of 444,000 in October, versus 354,000 in September. However, economists were expecting sales to total 419,000 in October.

Crude supplies declined by 5.6 million barrels for the week ended November 29, the US Energy Information Administration reported. However, analysts were expecting a fall of 1.25 million barrels.

The Fed will release its Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Eurozone Commodities Forex Global Econ #s Economics Hot Intraday Update Markets Movers Tech

Best Electric Utility Stocks To Watch Right Now

(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  Around the Web, We're Loving... Lightspeed Trading Presents: Thunder and Tubleweeds: Trading Techniques for the New Market Enviroment Pope Francis Rips 'Trickle-Down' Economics Come See How the Pro's Trade in this Exclusive Webinar Wynn, MGM, Other Casino Giants Vying For U.S. Turf What Should You Know About AMZN? Most Popular Why Did Apple Just Buy Topsy Labs? The Apple - China Mobile Deal By The Numbers Why Tesla Was Up 16 Percent Tuesday iPhone Pre-Orders May Finally, Quietly Begin Taking Hold with China Mobile The 10 Apple Acquisitions of 2013 iPad Shipments Increase In Q4 After Retina Mini Sold Out On Black Friday Related Articles (BRE + BZSUM) Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Wednesday December 4, 2013 Market Wrap For November 4: Economy Is Steady, Tapering Could Be Around The Corner Update: Shares of BRE Properties Jump on Bloomberg Report of Possible Company Sale Mid-Day Market Update: U.S. Stocks Turn Red; OmniVision Shares Tumble On Weak Outlook Benzinga's Volume Movers Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Edge Higher; Express Issues Downbeat Earnings Outlook

Monday, June 9, 2014

Shopping Report: Gains on Thanksgiving Day, Declines on Black Friday

Consumers turned out in big numbers for the Thanksgiving Day-Black Friday shopping weekend, but the numbers were a bit more wrinkled than many observers expected. Total numbers for the two days rose compared with last year according to research firm ShopperTrak, but only for Thanksgiving Day.

ShopperTrak logged a gain of 2.8% in brick-and-mortar store traffic for the two days, and a 2.3% gain in sales. The numbers for Black Friday fell significantly however, as more consumers headed for the stores on the Thursday holiday. Friday traffic was down 11.4% and sales were down 13.2% compared with last year.

On a regional basis, two-day traffic rose 6.9% in the West, 4.8% in the South, 2.3% in the Midwest, and fell 5% in the Northeast. A nasty winter storm in the Northeast gets the blame for the lower numbers. Sales followed the same pattern as traffic: up 6% in the West, 4.8% in the South, 3.3% in the Midwest, and down 7% in the Northeast.

If, as ShopperTrak's number suggest, Thanksgiving day is poaching traffic and sales from Black Friday are retailers actually gaining anything? A sales boost of just 2.3% for the two days won't be enough to carry full holiday season sales to the 3.9% increase predicted by the National Retail Federation. In fact, that estimate now looks too optimistic by about half.

Hot Communications Equipment Companies For 2015

Online shopping appears to have followed a similar track. The following chart from IBM's Digital Analytics Benchmark group indicates that by about 10 a.m. on Black Friday, online traffic starts to decline, probably as consumers head to the malls. And online traffic on Thursday evening already tops traffic on Friday.

IBM Benchmark 2013_REALTIME DATA GRAPHSSource: IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark

It's still too early to draw large conclusions from all the numbers, but most indications point to a better-than-expected Thanksgiving Day result and a slightly poorer-than-expected result for Black Friday. In the final analysis it very likely could be a wash: opening earlier on Thursday did not add anything, it merely shifted sales forward from Friday. That could be the story for the entire holiday shopping season.

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Executive Pay: How Much Do Shareholders Really Care?

How much do shareholders--or the public--really care about executive pay? A new proposal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may be aimed at finding out.

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, ("Dodd-Frank") requires publicly traded companies to hold non-binding (advisory) "say-on-pay" proxy votes at least once every three years on executive compensation policies.

In the short history of say-on-pay, these votes have at times attracted considerable publicity. In 2011, shareholders of Stanley Black & Decker, a tools and hardware company based in New Britain, Conn., issued a "no" vote, and the company's board lowered the CEO's pay by 63%, raised minimum officer stock-holding requirements and altered its severance pay agreements to be less CEO-friendly.

In 2012, Vikram Pandit was forced out as CEO of Citigroup six months after shareholders rejected an increase in his compensation.

Although say-on-pay votes are non-binding, their effects can be significant, and have the potential to reshape the way companies create, disclose and communicate their executive compensation policies.

This year, a proposed rule under Dodd-Frank, recently approved by the SEC, would require companies to disclose the ratio between the pay of CEOs and the median pay for all other employees. Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), who wrote the provision on pay-ratio disclosure, said that the proposed rule will help investors monitor how a company treats its average workers and whether its executive pay is reasonable.

Critics of the proposed rule say that it is mostly intended to create public outrage against companies that are perceived to be awarding overly high salaries to CEOs. The reality is that executive pay continues to rise - about 875% between 1978 and 2011, according to a 2012 study by the Economic Policy Institute - despite regulatory and shareholder efforts to restrain it.

Upward Spiral
The proposed rule is part of a continued emphasis on disclosure under Dodd-Frank, although the focus on transparency could actually contribute to steadily rising executive salaries. For one thing, the publicity surrounding CEO pay gives executives a good idea of how much they can ask their own companies to pay them. But there may be a more important reason for the continuing increases.

Corporate governance experts Charles M. Elson and Craig K. Ferrere, faculty members at the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware, point to a more important reason: the way boards of directors set salaries. Their recently published analysis, "Executive Superstars, Peer Groups and Over Compensation – Cause, Effect and Solution," showed that most company boards use a statistical technique called peer benchmarking to set CEO salaries.

It usually works like this: a board's first step is to gather a "peer group," made up of companies that are in the same line of business, similar in size and have a variety of similar characteristics. Next, the board gathers data that specifies the level of CEO compensation at each company. To complete the process the board decides at what percentile they want to target their own CEO's total compensation. Most boards set their chief executive's pay no lower than the median (50th percentile) of the group, while boards at other companies could decide to place CEO salaries at the 75th or even the 90th percentile. And with other peer group companies using the same benchmarking process, it all but guarantees that CEO salaries will continue to rise.

The proposed rule sharply divided the SEC commissioners, but won approval by a 3-2 margin.

Commissioner Luis A. Aguilar said: "If comparing CEO compensation solely to the compensation of other CEOs can lead to an … upward spiral, then comparing CEO compensation to the compensation of an average worker may help offset that trend."

Another member expressed strong diss! ent. Commissioner Daniel M. Gallagher said: "There are no – count them, zero – benefits that our staff have been able to discern. As the proposal explains, '[T]he lack of a specific market failure identified as motivating the enactment of this provision poses significant challenges in quantifying potential economic benefits, if any, from the pay ratio disclosure.'"

Plansponsor.com, a news and information website for retirement industry professionals, published the results of a poll by the consulting firm Towers Watson. That firm polled 375 corporate executives and compensation professionals regarding the ruling. The poll revealed that 56% of poll respondents said they are most concerned about the process of complying with the new disclosure requirement, especially collecting pay data, deciding how to approach data-sampling and determining the median employee. Only one-third of respondents (34%) said they are confident they will have the information necessary to comply by 2015.

What Shareholders Want
The benchmarking process itself raises important questions about executive compensation. For example, when do shareholders care about CEO pay, and what matters most when they vote, yes or no, on CEO compensation?

The impetus for passage of Dodd-Frank's say-on-pay requirement in 2011 focused on remedying "excessive" CEO pay. Shareholders generally expressed outrage that CEOs of companies considered to be "underperforming" were receiving large salaries and other compensation (e.g., stock options and other equity-based compensation). Few if any shareholders ever complained about CEOs who were underpaid relative to above-average company performance. This largely explains why say-on-pay votes are usually discussed in terms of reducing overall CEO pay, rather than strengthening links between pay and performance.

A group of researchers conducted experiments to discover whether shareholders care equally about both of the outcomes described above, or whether they considered CEO pay, company performance, or lack of alignment between pay and performance, differentially. The researchers conducted two experiments, rather than use existing data on say-on-pay votes, because it allowed them to focus on different combinations of pay and performance conditions and determine whether causal relationships exist.

Somewhat surprisingly, the results showed that "shareholders" in the experiment were no more likely to reject high CEO pay than low CEO pay. Adding company performance, however, added some necessary context. Participants in the study were much more likely to reject high CEO pay only if the company showed poor performance relative to its peer group. Otherwise, study participants expressed no preference for high or low CEO pay, or for a CEO pay increase or decrease, when company performance was strong. Shareholders were concerned only with CEOs whom they considered to be overpaid when their company performed poorly.

The study's results are confirmed by real-world performance data. Equilar, an independent consulting firm that provides information about executive compensation, analyzed key financial metrics of companies that have held say-on-pay votes in 2013, to investigate a possible correlation! between the company's financial performance and its say-on-pay passing rates. Equilar's analysis considered such key metrics as change in earnings and one-year total shareholder return (TSR, assuming all capital gains distributions and dividends are reinvested), as well as revenue and market capitalization (the total value of shares a company has issued) at the end of the fiscal year.

The companies that passed their say-on-pay votes had an increase in year-over-year earnings of 4.5% and a one-year TSR of 17.1%. These companies had $1 billion in revenue and $1.6 billion in market capitalization. Conversely, the companies that failed their say-on-pay votes had a decrease in year-over-year earnings of 14.4% and a one-year TSR of 11%. In addition, they had $0.8 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in market capitalization.

Those that passed performed better in all of the key metrics observed compared with those that failed. These results suggest that financial performance does, in fact, have a positive correlation with shareholders voting in favor of executive pay packages.

It should be noted that the number of companies that failed (31) is significantly smaller than the number of companies that passed (1,567). Equilar's analysis found that "pay for performance disconnect" – a high level of executive compensation coupled with poor relative company performance – was the most common reason that shareholders voted against a company's say-on-pay proposal.

Global Say-on-Pay Policies
The most important difference between the U.S. approach to say-on-pay and evolving regulations in Europe is that U.S. companies are not legally required to address negative shareholder votes, as European corporations may soon be required to do.

Earlier this year, Switzerland became the latest European country to require binding shareholder say-on-pay votes. Australia has a variation on binding say-on-pay called the "two-strikes" rule, which requires a company's entire board of directors to stand for re-election if at least 25% of shareholders vote against executive compensation in two consecutive meetings.

The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden already had some form of binding say-on-pay rules. The United Kingdom is expected to join this group, pending passage of legislation this year that would require a binding say-on-pay vote every three years. Germany and the European Union are also expected to introduce binding votes before the end of 2013.

Except for India, say-on-pay policies have not yet become an accepted aspect of corporate governance in Asia. Shareowner Rights Across the Markets, a publication of CFA Institute that provides individual reports for 28 different markets, surveyed whether shareholders are able to affect a company's remuneration (pay) policies through either binding or non-binding votes. It reports, in part:

In India, compensation policies and limits are approved by shareholders and may be altered by shareholders. Indian companies generally provide incentives through a commission on profits, rather than through options or other equity-based plans.

In Indonesia, the picture is somewhat mixed. Company practices vary in the approval of compensation for boards of directors. In some cases, compensation of board members is approved by a board of commissioners, but other companies require the approval of both commissioners and shareholders.

In China, shareholders are not usually given any vote on compensation issues or on a compensation report p! roduced by a company, although in the banking sector, shareholders have sometimes been given a binding vote on specific compensation, such as bonuses.

The Bottom Line
It's clear that there's a huge gap between how companies compensate executives and what they pay their regular workers. The SEC's proposed rule on CEO pay ratios, however, may be less about providing additional information to investors and more about creating public outrage over executive pay. After all, the SEC already requires companies to disclose the salaries of top management. The question is whether showing the disparity between the pay of executives and rank and file will prompt enough of a reaction from shareholders - or the public - to really make a difference.

Friday Closing Bell: Markets Booming; DJIA, S&P 500 at Record Highs Again

November 15, 2013: U.S. equity markets opened higher Friday morning even following a dismal report on the Empire State manufacturing index, a lower-than-expected reading on U.S. industrial production, and a drop in U.S. export prices. Sharply higher readings on wholesale inventories promise increased estimates for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Both the DJIA and the S&P 500 indexes closed at new highs today.

European markets closed mostly higher today, while Asian and Latin American markets all closed higher.

Monday's calendar includes speeches by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, New York Fed President William Dudley, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and the following scheduled data releases and events (all times Eastern):

9:00 a.m. – Treasury International Capital (TIC) data 10:00 a.m. – Housing market index 10:00 a.m. – E-commerce retail sales 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month bill auctions

Here are the closing bell levels for Friday:

S&P500 1798.18 (+7.55; +0.42%) DJIA 15961.70 (+85.48; +0.54%) NASDAQ 3985.97 (+13.23; +0.33%) 10YR TNOTE 2.705% (+0.1250) Gold $1,287.40 (+1.10; +0.1%) and up 0.2% for the week WTI Crude oil $93.84 (+0.08; +0.1%) and down 0.8% for the week for a sixth consecutive weekly decline Euro/Dollar: 1.3492 (+0.0032; +0.25%)

Big Earnings Movers: Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) is up 8.7% at $54.94. Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is down 0.3% at $17.51 on a weak forecast. Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) is down 1% at $62.81. Youku Tudou Inc. (NYSE: YOKU) is up 11.2% at $29.30. InterCloud Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ICLD) is up 265.9% at $9.33 on solid results and higher hopes.

Stocks on the Move: Zulily Inc. (NASDAQ: ZU) is up 71.4% at $37.70 after its IPO today. Cadence Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CADX) is up 33.8% at $7.87 on a patent ruling. Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) is down 7.4% at $24.04.

In all, 214 NYSE stocks put up new 52-week highs today, while 16 stocks posted new lows.

Nouriel Roubini Warns of Bubbles in the Economic Broth

Noted bubble expert Nouriel Roubini, professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, channeled PIMCO’s Bill Gross late last month by employing a soup metaphor to warn of economic woes to come.

The problem, Roubini noted, is the tradeoff between restoring robust growth and maintaining financial stability. The former requires policies that would potentially lead to economic bubbles while the latter does little to stimulate employment.

He begins by noting the alphabet soup of measures central banks been “served up” in recent years: ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy); QE (quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to reduce long-term rates when short-term policy rates are zero); CE (credit easing, or purchases of private assets aimed at lowering the private sector’s cost of capital); and FG (forward guidance, or the commitment to maintain QE or ZIRP until, say, the unemployment rate reaches a certain target).

“And yet, through it all, growth rates have remained stubbornly low and unemployment rates unacceptably high, partly because the increase in money supply following QE has not led to credit creation to finance private consumption or investment,” Roubini wrote on the Project Syndicate website.

Instead, he added, banks have hoarded the increase in the monetary base in the form of idle excess reserves.

“There is a credit crunch, as banks with insufficient capital do not want to lend to risky borrowers, while slow growth and high levels of household debt have also depressed credit demand," he writes. "As a result, all of this excess liquidity is flowing to the financial sector rather than the real economy.”

Indeed, Roubini argued, the U.S. stock market and many others have rebounded more than 100% since the lows of 2009; issuance of high-yield junk bonds is back to its 2007 level; and interest rates on such bonds are falling.

“The collapse from 2007 to 2009 of equity, credit and housing bubbles in the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Iceland and Dubai led to severe financial crises and economic damage.”

So, are we at risk of another cycle of financial boom and bust?

The trouble is that if macroeconomic policies advocated by central banks don’t work, the interest rate “would have to serve two opposing goals: economic recovery and financial stability. If policymakers go [slowly] on raising rates to encourage faster economic recovery, they risk causing the mother of all asset bubbles, eventually leading to a bust, another massive financial crisis, and a rapid slide into recession.”

If they try to prick bubbles early on with higher interest rates, he countered, they will crash bond markets and kill the recovery, causing much economic and financial damage. It’s a case of “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

“For now, policymakers in countries with frothy credit, equity, and housing markets have avoided raising policy rates, given slow economic growth,” he concluded. "With asset prices continuing to rise, many economies may have had as much soup as they can stand."

---

Check out these related stories on ThinkAdvisor:

.