3 Things to Consider Before Buying Apple Stock

Unless you’re the New England Patriots, staying on top is a massive challenge. The owners of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, who spent most of the last 15 years smiling, learned this lesson the hard way. Between October of last year through early January, Apple stock tumbled badly and uncharacteristically. As a result, its latest surge has created both optimism and trepidation.

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For over a decade, Apple’s iPhone dominated the smartphone space, naturally causing AAPL stock price to spike. At the time, no one cared that the iPhone represented the lion’s share of the company’s global revenue. As long as customers kept buying iPhones – and they did – this unbalanced allocation was an asset.

But with “peak smartphone” negatively impacting the entire industry, AAPL needed fresh ideas. However, I argued that it hasn’t been able to keep pace with its competitors. The company badly lost out in the smart-speaker battle to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL). Even “second-thought” Sony (NYSE:SNE) has started to flex its consumer-tech muscles.

That said, the year is still young, giving management the opportunity to right the ship. Since the year began, Apple stock has gained over 13%. Is this the time to buy AAPL stock or should burned investors remain cautious?

Geopolitical Tailwind for Apple Stock

I’m still very much concerned about the impact of Apple’s fundamentals on Apple stock price. Although AAPL is trying to tap other growth opportunities, its bread-and-butter remains the iPhone. Since smartphones have become commoditized, Apple needs to find a new game-changer for AAPL stock price to move decisively higher.

Nevertheless, I believe that Apple stock provides viable, nearer-term opportunity for speculative buyers and swing-traders. Early this year, Apple CEO Tim Cook essentially blamed the Trump administration for poor iPhone sales in China. Cook stated, “It’s clear that the economy began to slow there in the second half and I believe the trade tensions between the United States and China put additional pressure on their economy.””

However, that headwind will likely fade into the background. A recent thawing in U.S.-China relations may indeed result in a permanent resolution. The generally positive recent action of the U.S. stock market suggests that Wall Street is optimistic about a U.S.-China deal. Speculators can buy Apple stock ahead of a likely deal, and potentially profit handsomely from the transaction.

One of the silver linings of the Trump administration’s high-profile failure to securing a North Korean denuclearization agreement is that it’s extra-motivated to get something, anything going.

One of the most prominent, likely prizes for the administration is ceasing the painful U.S.-China trade war. Such an agreement could boost  Apple stock by a hefty amount.

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AAPL Stock Needs Another Catalyst Besides China

Earlier, I mentioned the New England Patriots as an example of sustained excellence. However, they’ve also suffered their share of blunders, both on the field and apparently off it.

Just as some of the Pats’ blunders could not have been predicted, there are often major surprises in geopolitics. So President Trump wants to negotiate after the North Korea debacle and the U.S. and China are reportedly close to a deal, which are positive developments. But despite these developments, a deal may still not get done.

Either way, Apple and Apple stock face severe challenges. Since the first quarter of 2012, China has unquestionably been the king of Apple’s growth. On a year-over-year basis, Apple’s “Greater China” sales have risen by an average of 17.4%. No region besides Japan experienced double-digit growth over that period.

Unfortunately, recent metrics indicate a complete reversal of fortune. Since the first quarter of 2017, Apple’s China revenues have increased by an annual average of less than 2%.

Moreover, data indicates that Apple’s growth in other regions is sustainable. The company’s revenue in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific excluding Japan has ticked up meaningfully relative to their respective long-term averages. And in Japan’s case, the dip in sales growth is minor.

That’s not the case in China. Therefore, even if the trade war is resolved, Apple stock still has an uphill battle ahead.

Technical Considerations

As I mentioned near the beginning of the column, the AAPL stock price is off to a solid start this year. More importantly, the momentum of Apple stock is building.

However, the longer-term picture is ambiguous. For starters, Apple stock is currently sandwiched between its 50 and 200 day moving averages. This suggests reluctance among traders to push shares one way or the other.

Also note that the current price point represents a horizontal resistance line. In May of last year, Apple stock famously broke through this resistance on its way to a trillion-dollar market capitalization. But we all know that rally didn’t last too long.

So is AAPL stock about to challenge those highs again, or will it crumble back down? I see a case for being bullish on Apple stock in the nearer-term based on a potential resolution of the trade war. At the same time, I wouldn’t hold onto Apple stock longer than necessary. As I demonstrated earlier, the company has to overcome underappreciated troubles.

As of this writing, Josh En